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Swine Flu (H1N1) 

At the moment there seems to be a lot of confusion over what is happening with Swine ‘flu and the vaccination programme. Contradictory advice is coming out of government and the media is whipping up a panic. I hope this flyer will make things clearer.

First of all, let us be clear that in the great scheme of things, Swine ‘flu is a less sinister illness than the annual, seasonal ‘flu for which vaccines are already available. There will be more deaths due to Seasonal ‘flu than Swine ‘flu. Most fit people contracting Swine ‘flu will recover fully within a week, however, some individuals with underlying illnesses, may become dangerously ill. Pregnant women and younger people [by which I mean under 40] seem more at risk than others.

The reason why young (ish) people appear more at risk is that they were not exposed to a similar HIN1 virus during the pandemics in the 1950s and 1960s. Those who remember the “ Hong Kong ‘flu” epidemic will have enough immunity to fight off this Swine ‘flu, as long as they have nothing else to impair their immunity. This is why the vaccination campaign, when it arrives, will concentrate initially on the younger, at risk, group.

 

If it is so mild, why is it a Pandemic? What has made the Swine ‘flu into a Pandemic is not the severity but the rate at which it has spread. It spreads very quickly from person to person and part of the intention of the vaccination campaign will be to slow that spread by producing many more immune people who cannot pass it on. Health Care Workers expect to be in contact with many individuals with Swine ‘flu, and will be amongst the first vaccinated. Not for their own protection, but for that of the patients to whom they might inadvertently pass the virus whilst incubating Swine ‘flu themselves!

 

If Swine ‘flu is so mild, why bother vaccinating people, why not just wait until everyone’s caught it, why not have Swine ‘flu parties, like they used to do with measles?

 

Because of H5N1, another ‘flu virus found in the Far East amongst poultry, Avian ‘flu. This is a lethal to humans, but very slow moving virus. It does not pass from human to human, but can be caught due to close contact with infected birds. Remember the panic over the Cellardyke swan? So we have fairly benign ‘flu moving quickly from the west to the east, and a really nasty ‘flu edging from the east to the west. What will happen if they meet?

 

The worst case scenario is that they combine to produce a lethal, fast moving ‘flu that will really be a nightmare to contain, and will become a murderous pandemic of 1918 proportions when millions died.

 

How do we stop that happening? By vaccinating everyone. If everyone is vaccinated it is possible to halt the Swine ‘flu here, or at least slow it down very significantly. If the worst should happen, then those vaccinated against Swine ‘flu now will have some protection against any hybrid ‘flu, should it arrive in the future, just as those who had ‘flu in the 50s and 60s are protected against Swine ‘flu today.

 

In a nutshell, we in Britain are in the front line against the spread of a very sinister disease. Those who are vaccinated will protect themselves, but they will also make it less likely that an even worse pandemic will arise in the future. A pandemic that really could threaten civilisation.

 

Dr George